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IE3 Premium Efficiency Revenues Accelerating Rapidly, Set to Overtake IE1 in 2018

IE3超高效電機增長迅速，將在2018年超越IE1

Often times, government regulations rarely translate into tremendous revenue growth in a global market however, this is not the case in the integral horsepower low voltage (LV) motor market where revenues for IE3 Premium Efficiency (and the equivalent NEMA Premium?) are on course to almost double by 2018 to over $8,000 million globally. Major LV motor markets are becoming more and more regulated towards IE2 and IE3 motors, as this dynamic has signaled that the eminent decline of the lowest efficiency class motor market, IE1, has begun in earnest.

很多時候，在一個全球性的市場，政府法規很少轉化為巨大的收入增長，但在整數馬力低壓電機市場，情況并非如此，IE3超高效（相當于NEMA Premium）電機的全球營收到2018年將超過80億美元，幾乎翻一倍。低壓電機的主要市場正變得越來越規范，以IE2和IE3電機為主，這一動態也暗示著，最低能效等級的IE1電機市場，開始正式大幅下降。

The IE1 market is currently the largest regulated LV motor market in the world in terms of revenues and units, with the majority concentrated in the Asia Pacific, the Russian Federation & CIS, and smaller markets where no energy efficiency regulations exist. Major regions have been shifting out of the IE1 market since the US began in 2002, and this has catalyzed revenue growth in the form of more expensive IE2 and IE3 LV motors being sold than in previous years. Typically, a regional transition to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor can take six years or more after the official start date has been announced, with the peak of the transition occurring in year three or four. Such is the case with the IE3 market, as the US and Canada are currently phasing out IE2 and IE1 motors, with the European Union, Japan and China following suit in 2015, late 2016, and 2017, respectively. Analyst Mark Meza states “IE3 revenues have been growing at 3-digit rates since 2010, as the current IE3 markets are fortuitously located in regional markets that have been quick to recover from the global recession, and have not experienced further economic difficulties as seen in the IE2 markets of the European Union and Brazil over the past few years.”

就營收和數量而言，IE1是目前全球最大的低壓調節電機市場，大部分集中在亞太、俄羅斯聯邦和獨聯體等地區，以及沒有能效法規監管的小型市場。隨著美國從2002年開始主要區域逐漸擺脫IE1市場，銷售的是相比前幾年更昂貴的IE2和IE3 低壓電機，從而推動了營收的增長。通常情況下，一個地區要升級到更高能效等級的低壓電機，從正式開始日期算起，可能需要6年以上的時間，其中第3年或第4年是升級的高峰。IE3市場就是這樣的情況，美國和加拿大目前正在逐步淘汰IE2和IE1電機，歐盟、日本和中國爭相效仿，將分別在2015年、2016年末和2017年淘汰。分析師Mark Meza指出，“自2010年以來，IE3收入取得了3位數的增長率，因為目前IE3市場有的處于已迅速從全球經濟衰退中復蘇的地區市場，而且也沒有經歷過比IE2市場過去幾年里在歐盟和巴西所經歷過的更大的經濟困難。”

In 2017, the rapidly ascending IE3 market is forecast to be almost equal in revenues to the outgoing IE1 market. At this point in time, IHS predicts that the two motor segments will be headed in opposite directions. It is interesting to note that while revenues for IE3 will overtake IE1 revenues in 2017, units for IE1 are still predicted to be double the units in the IE3 market. Meza adds “From the revenue and units comparison of these two markets over time, it is clear to see the revenue-enhancing effect of energy efficiency regulations that operate independently of the market’s demand.” According to growth forecasts, high revenue growth in the IE3 market will begin to cool off significantly in North America just as it begins to heat up in the Eurozone, Japan and China barring any further major economic downturns to these newest players in the IE3 market.

到2017年，預計增長迅速的IE3電機市場將在銷售額方面追上逐步淘汰的IE1市場。在這個時間點上，IHS預測，這兩個等級電機市場的發展將背道而馳。值得注意的是，雖然IE3收入將在2017年超過IE1，但預計IE1的電機數量仍將是IE3的兩倍。Meza補充說：“通過比較這兩個市場在一段時間的銷售額和數量，可以清楚地看到能效法規對增加銷售額的作用，這一作用也獨立關系著市場需求。”根據增長預測，IE3市場的銷售額高增長將開始在北美地區顯著放緩，同時，歐元區、日本和中國，在排除了任何進一步的重大經濟衰退之后，這些IE3電機的最新市場開始升溫。