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Manufacturing Overcapacity Constrains Industrial Robot Market Growth in China
制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩抑制中國(guó)工業(yè)機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)

The Chinese market for industrial robots reached an estimated $1.3 billion in 2015. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20 percent, reaching $3.3 billion in 2020,according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. China accounted for 13 percent of global industrial robot sales revenue in 2015, and is expected to comprise 25 percent in 2020.

全球領(lǐng)先的市場(chǎng)研究公司IHS統(tǒng)計(jì)表明，2015年中國(guó)工業(yè)機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)規(guī)模達(dá)13億美元，而且將保持20%的年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率，到2020年達(dá)33億美元。2015年，中國(guó)的工業(yè)機(jī)器人銷(xiāo)售收入占全球13%，預(yù)計(jì)這一數(shù)字到2020年將達(dá)25%。

“The much-needed regeneration of the manufacturing industry is a multi-billion dollar opportunity for the industrial robot market,” said Mark Watson, senior manager, manufacturing technology, IHS Technology. “Labor-intensive industries are increasingly automating production, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region where labor costs have risen quickly. Labor shortages have led to increasing wages, shortening the potential return on investment of industrial robots for many end-users.”

“制造業(yè)迫切的復(fù)蘇有望為工業(yè)機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)數(shù)十億美元的發(fā)展機(jī)遇，”IHS制造科技部高級(jí)經(jīng)理Mark Watson表示。“勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)越來(lái)越傾向于自動(dòng)化生產(chǎn)，尤其是在勞動(dòng)力成本迅速攀升的亞太地區(qū)。勞動(dòng)力短缺導(dǎo)致工資上漲，進(jìn)而減少了很多終端用戶(hù)的潛在投資收益。”

As capacity utilization begins to increase in 2018, industrial robot adoption will accelerate, as end-users start to optimize the technology in their factories and prices fall. Increasing labor costs, low commodity prices, and competition from other low-cost manufacturing regions, will promote further adoption of industrial robots. The effect of China’s 13th strategic plan is expected to positively impact growth in beginning in 2018, providing direct access to credit and tax relief, which will increase investment.

隨著產(chǎn)能利用率的提升，終端用戶(hù)對(duì)工廠的技術(shù)優(yōu)化以及價(jià)格降低，到2018年，工業(yè)機(jī)器人的應(yīng)用率將大大加速。而伴隨逐漸增加的勞動(dòng)力成本、低廉的商品價(jià)格，和與其他低制造成本地區(qū)之間的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，工業(yè)機(jī)器人的應(yīng)用將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。在十三五規(guī)劃下，由于獲得直接信貸和稅收減免，企業(yè)能加大機(jī)器人投資，從而有利于工業(yè)機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)。

However, according to the latest research from the IHS Industrial Robots Intelligence Service, manufacturing overcapacity in many industries -- particularly heavy industries -- has the potential to limit robot market growth, particularly considering the poor short-term outlook of the Chinese economy. Local manufacturers are unlikely to spend considerable sums of money to install industrial robots, in light of excess capacity and a reduced need for productivity improvements. The alternative is to employ temporary workers, which is a flexible and a less capital-intensive process for many local manufacturers. However, labor shortages will continue in China, as the economy continues its shift to a service-based model.

然而，IHS工業(yè)機(jī)器人情報(bào)服務(wù)部的最新研究顯示，中國(guó)短期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不明，很多行業(yè)都出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的情況，尤以重工業(yè)為甚，這將限制工業(yè)機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)。在這種情況下，當(dāng)?shù)刂圃焐烫岣呱a(chǎn)率的需求不大，因此不太可能投入大量資金安裝工業(yè)機(jī)器人。相反，他們更愿意雇傭臨時(shí)工人，因?yàn)檫@對(duì)他們來(lái)說(shuō)更靈活、資本密集程度更低。但隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)向服務(wù)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變，勞動(dòng)力短缺的問(wèn)題將越來(lái)越明顯。

“The need to improve flexibility and identify production efficiencies underpins industrial robot investment,” Watson said. “By installing robots that easily adjust to production levels and manufacturing processes, companies can save on labor costs and rely less on temporary unskilled workers.”

“制造商對(duì)生產(chǎn)靈活性和明確的生產(chǎn)效率的需求，支撐著對(duì)工業(yè)機(jī)器人的投資，”Watson說(shuō)道。“采用機(jī)器人后，企業(yè)可以輕松地調(diào)整生產(chǎn)水平和制造流程，還可以節(jié)省人力成本，降低對(duì)臨時(shí)工的依賴(lài)。”

Robot suppliers headquartered outside of China accounted for over 80 percent of 2015 industrial robot sales in China. These companies maintain a dominant presence in the market, because they have established relationships with leading end users and provide high-quality hardware, software and support services.

2015年，外資品牌占據(jù)了中國(guó)工業(yè)機(jī)器人銷(xiāo)量總額的80%以上。這些企業(yè)在中國(guó)的機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)占據(jù)著主導(dǎo)地位，因?yàn)樗麄円呀?jīng)與國(guó)內(nèi)主要的終端用戶(hù)建立了合作關(guān)系，提供高質(zhì)量的軟硬件及支持服務(wù)。

“Industrial robot market leaders in China invest substantially in research and development, facilitating the penetration of collaborative robots, deep machine learning, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies, to ensure they lead the future of the industry,” Watson said. “As a result, local Chinese suppliers face a considerable challenge in securing market share.”

“中國(guó)工業(yè)機(jī)器人領(lǐng)導(dǎo)企業(yè)在研發(fā)上投入大量資金，用于研制擁有協(xié)作能力、深度學(xué)習(xí)能力的產(chǎn)品，提高其人工智能水平以及開(kāi)發(fā)其他新興技術(shù)，從而確保他們?cè)谛袠I(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中占據(jù)有利位置，”Watson表示。“因此，中國(guó)本地供應(yīng)商面臨激烈的市場(chǎng)份額爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)。”