后疫情時代，協作機器人能否經歷第二次增長潮？
http://www.moduwu.com 2023-05-19 17:20 《中華工控網》翻譯
Can the Collaborative Robot Market Experience a Second Growth Surge in the Post-pandemic Era?
后疫情時代，協作機器人能否經歷第二次增長潮？
The market for collaborative robots is forecast to show strong growth over the coming years, with rising sales in industrial and non-industrial sectors and new application scenarios being developed.
協作機器人市場預計在未來幾年將呈現強勁增長，工業和非工業領域的銷售額不斷上漲，并且正在開發新的應用場景。
According to Interact Analysis’ newly published ‘Global Collaborative Robot Market–2023’ report, market revenue grew by 17.2% to US$954m in 2022, with shipments increasing by 21.9% to 37,780 units. Following a rapid rebound in 2021 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the growth rate of the collaborative robot (cobot) market dropped to around 20%. Can collaborative robots return to the previous high-speed growth rate of over 30% within the next 5 years? Where does the growth point for a second surge in shipments come from?
根據Interact Analysis新發布的《2023年全球協作機器人市場》報告，2022年全球協作機器人市場規模增長17.2%至9.54億美金，出貨量增長21.9%至37780臺。在2021年疫情期間，協作機器人迅猛反彈之后增速回落至20%上下。未來5年，協作機器人還能重回30%+的高速增長區間嗎？二次爆發的增長點來自何處？
We will analyze the potential for rapid growth in the collaborative robot market from five perspectives: market, product, industry, application and customer.
我們將從市場、產品、行業、應用和客戶五個角度分析協作機器人市場快速增長的潛力。
Market: Outlook still optimistic in the medium to long term, with price declines slowing
市場：中長期前景依然樂觀，價格跌勢趨緩
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of global collaborative robot market shipments is anticipated to be 27% over the next five years, with China recording a market CAGR of about 30%, and the South America and Southeast Asia regions both exceeding 30% growth annually. As shown in the graph below, the growth rate forecast for the next few years is higher compared with 2022 predictions (gray dashed line).
未來五年全球協作機器人市場出貨量復合年增長率（CAGR）預計為27%，其中中國市場約為30%，南美和東南亞地區每年增速均超過30%。如下圖所示，未來幾年增長率相較于2022版本（灰色虛線）進行了上調。
Unlike the price rebound of traditional industrial robots in 2022, the price of collaborative robots is still declining, but the magnitude of decline is slowing down. The main reasons behind this are:
價格方面，與傳統工業機器人價格出現回升不同，協作機器人的價格依舊在下滑，只是下降幅度趨緩。主要原因是：
1.In the Chinese market, which accounts for more than half of all shipments, the price decline trend is still significant. Even though most leading component manufacturers have increased their prices more than once, cobot vendors can still control cost within a reasonable range by using local component brands.
2.Market competition is becoming increasingly fierce and so it is unsurprising that many leading cobot manufacturers are employing low pricing strategies to drive growth, particularly as they approach a critical juncture for financing or potential listing.
3.There have been over a hundred large orders placed in the automotive and non-industrial sectors, driving down average prices.
1.在占全部出貨量一半以上的中國市場，價格的下降趨勢依舊顯著。盡管大多數領先的組件制造商都不止一次地提高了價格，但協作機器人供應商仍然可以通過使用本地組件品牌將成本控制在合理范圍內。
2.市場競爭越來越激烈，因此許多領先的協作機器人制造商采用低價策略來推動增長也就屢見不鮮，尤其是在他們接近融資或潛在上市的關鍵時刻時。
3.汽車和非工業部門出現了超一百臺的大訂單，拉低了平均價格。
According to our predictions, the trend of price declines for collaborative robots will be relatively shallow in the next 5 years. The increase in the proportion of >10kg models combining with the added value of in-machine vision with AI solutions have offset a significant decline in average market prices. As a result, we predict annual price declines will remain at 3-5%.
根據我們的預測，未來5年協作機器人的價格趨勢較為溫和。10kg以上大負載產品占比上升，以及機器視覺、AI等功能的增加對沖了市場均價的大幅下滑，我們預測每年價格降幅維持在3%-5%。
Product: Greater intelligence, greater payload, and greater openness
產品：高智能化、高負載化、高開放度
Technologies and solutions related to greater intelligence–including artificial intelligence and machine vision–are increasingly being promoted by collaborative robot manufacturers and are gradually beginning to influence customers’ purchasing decisions. Collaborative robot vendors want to further expand their application scenarios and are looking at ways to increase the perceptive abilities and flexibility of their machines.
以人工智能和機器視覺的代表的智能化技術正越來越多地被協作機器人廠商提及，并逐漸開始影響客戶的購買決策。協作機器人想要進一步拓展應用場景，感知能力和靈活度也是協作機器人廠家著力提升的方向。
Demand is growing to expand collaborative robot product lines to carry greater payload, partly from the needs of real applications like palletizing or welding, and also in order to find incremental market growth space. Faced with inevitable competition from SCARA and high-speed small six-axis robots in the small payload sector, many cobot vendors have begun to take advantage of easy deployment, lightweight body, and high cost-effectiveness to develop models with >10kg payload. The chart below presents the payload and arm length of newly launched collaborative robot models from 2022 to 2023, with the growing trend for higher payload and longer arm length clearly visible.
擴展協作機器人產品線以承載更大有效載荷的需求正在增長，部分原因是碼垛或焊接等實際應用的需求，另外也是為了尋找增量市場增長空間。面對小負載領域SCARA和高速小型六軸機器人不可避免的競爭，許多協作機器人廠商開始利用易部署、輕量化和高性價比的優勢開發負載10kg以上的型號。下圖整理了2022-2023新推出的協作機器人型號的負載和臂展，高負載大臂展的趨勢清晰可見。
Greater openness includes different levels of openness in software and hardware. Currently, most mainstream collaborative robot manufacturers provide RDK for system integrators or customers to conduct secondary development. The growing trend towards greater openness will make a more comprehensive range of collaborative robots possible, while also enabling customized solutions to be created more effectively.
高開放度包含了軟件和硬件不同層次的開放，目前大部分主流協作機器人廠商都提供RDK，可供系統集成商或者客戶進行二次開發。越來越開放的趨勢將使更全面的協作機器人成為可能，同時也能夠更有效地創建定制解決方案。
Industry: Growth predicted for non-industrial cobot shipments in the post-pandemic era
行業：非工業占比在后疫情時代的提升可以預見
The global macroeconomic downturn in 2022 struck a significant blow to the non-industrial sector, with the penetration of collaborative robots in industries such as catering, massage, and retail (which are oriented towards individual end consumers) slowing down significantly. The impact of delays to warehousing logistics projects has also resulted in a slower growth rate than expected.
2022年全球宏觀經濟下行對于非工業領域帶來了較大的打擊，以個人為終端消費者導向的餐飲、按摩、零售等行業的協作機器人滲透明顯減速。倉儲物流受到項目延期的影響也增速不及預期。
In contrast, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the manufacturing industry has been plagued by work stoppages and labor shortages over the past three years. The demand for upgrading and renovating production lines in traditional manufacturing industries, such as automobiles, metals and general industries, has significantly increased. Coupled with the relocation of factories or production lines by many multinational enterprises in response to supply chain adjustments, and the current trend for reshoring, demand for collaborative robots has significantly increased.
相比之下，過去三年中受到疫情影響，制造業飽受停工停產和人工短缺的困擾，以汽車、金屬、一般工業為代表的傳統制造業的產線升級改造需求明顯增多，疊加許多跨國企業供應鏈調整帶來的工廠或者產線的搬遷，協作機器人的需求大幅增加。
The industry with the fastest growth rate in 2022 was the new energy industry (including lithium-ion battery, wind power, PV and hydrogen), followed by automotive and electronics. This is mainly due to the accelerated growth in various parts of the new energy vehicle supply chain in 2022. Collaborative robots can quickly replace workstations due to their flexibility and ease-of-use.
2022年增速最快的行業是新能源行業（包括鋰離子電池、風電、光伏和氫能），其次是汽車和電子。這主要得益于2022年新能源汽車供應鏈各環節的加速增長。協作機器人憑借其靈活、柔性等特點能夠迅速完成工位替代。
In addition, collaborative robots have also seen relatively stable growth in industries such food & beverage, and chemicals & pharmaceuticals.
除此之外，協作機器人在食品飲料、化工醫藥等行業也有較為穩定的增長。
Application: Welding and palletizing emerging fast
應用：焊接和碼垛異軍突起
According to the Industrial Robots report from Interact Analysis, welding and material handling are the two largest applications for industrial robots. In 2022, over half of all global sales of industrial robots came from these two major applications, with the lion’s share coming from heavily loaded articulated robots. In contrast, the proportion of welding industrial robot sales was less than 5% in 2022, but with huge growth potential.
根據Interact Analysis的工業機器人報告，焊接和物料搬運是工業機器人占比最高的兩大應用，2022年全球工業機器人超過一半的銷售額來自這兩大應用，當然主要是大負載的多關節機器人。相較而言，在協作機器人中焊接的占比在2022年僅為不到5%，增長潛力巨大。
The poor consistency of manual welding and the harsh working environment make welding a key factor in the overall efficiency of a production line, and it is also the most difficult area for many factories to recruit workers. In small factories, flexible and easily deployable collaborative robots can be used to weld small workpieces, while on large assembly lines welding of complex workpieces can also be completed by combining multiple collaborative robots or using a combination of cobots and skilled workers. Due to the high growth potential of welding scenarios, we have seen major collaborative robot companies, including UR, AUBO, and JAKA, launch specific solutions for welding applications in 2022.
人工焊接的一致性差，工作環境惡劣，使得焊接成為影響產線整體生產效率的關鍵因素，也是很多工廠招工最難的崗位。在小型工廠，靈活且易于部署的協作機器人可以用于焊接小型工件，而在大型流水線上，由多臺協作機器人組合或者用協作機器人+熟練工人的組合，也可以完成復雜工件的焊接。正因為焊接場景的高增長潛力，我們看到包括優傲、遨博、節卡在內的主要頭部協作機器人企業都在2022年針對焊接應用推出了具體的解決方案。
Collaborative palletizing has also become a hot topic, with a significant increase in the application of simple palletizing for collaborative robot arms, and a rise in loads exceeding 10kg in industries such as food & beverage and pharmaceuticals last year.
協作碼垛也成為了熱點話題，去年，在食品飲料，醫藥等行業中，負載超過10kg的協作機器人手臂的簡單碼垛應用出現顯著上升。
Customers: Direct sales and collaboration with customers growing
客戶：直接銷售和與客戶協作不斷增長
The collaborative robots sales channel can be divided into direct sales and distribution network (through distributors or system integrators). Because most clients are small and medium-sized companies, the distribution network contributed more than 90% of total market sales before 2020. Direct sales mainly target major customers in key industries, but due to the wide coverage and geographical distribution of the robot market, relying solely on direct sales does not best meet user needs. Distributors are usually systems integrators with engineering backgrounds who provide automation solutions paired with robots for customers in different industries.
協作機分直銷模式與分銷模式（通過經銷商或者系統集成商），早期協作機器人分銷的占比超過90%。直銷主要針對一些重點行業內的大客戶，但由于機器人市場覆蓋多且地域分布廣，僅僅依靠直銷并不能更好地滿足用戶需求；分銷商通常是具有工程背景的系統集成商，它們面對不同行業的客戶，提供搭配有機器人的自動化解決方案。
The distribution model can quickly build a sales network to occupy the market. However, it’s also important that robot manufacturers do not become overly reliant on the sales and technical support capabilities of distributors, and make sure they have a solid understanding of the actual needs of downstream customers. In order to have a deeper connection with customers and understand their practical application needs, the proportion of direct sales has rapidly increased over recent years, and it has become an important trend for robot manufacturers to collaborate with customers, creating different scenarios and use cases.
分銷模式可以快速構建銷售網絡以占領市場，但同時要防止機器人廠商過分依賴分銷商的銷售和技術支持能力，保證對下游客戶實際需求的了解。近年來，為了和客戶產生更深的連結同時了解實際應用需求，直銷占比迅速上升，和客戶一同進行場景互創成為了重要趨勢。
Direct sales enable robot manufacturers to provide suitable solutions based on the specific needs of customers, discover suitable applications for collaborative robots in a certain scenario, and work with customers to think about how best to use collaborative robots. By working closely with customers, robot manufacturers can also enhance retention rates and loyalty.
根據客戶的具體需求去提供合適的解決方案，針對某個場景來發現適合協作機器人的應用然后和客戶一起去思考如何使用協作機器人，這也是直銷的優勢。可以更好地保證客忠誠度，同時進行深入對接。
For different application scenarios, there are more suitable semi-customized products or secondary development activities that can be carried out. These methods include:
針對不同的應用場景，有更適合的半定制產品或者可以進行二次開發。方式包括：
1.Providing process packages that support rapid deployment and adaptation to certain application scenarios. Users can choose and configure kits according to their needs in order to build their own systems.
2.Providing diversified solutions for secondary development interfaces, which can quickly meet the customized needs of different industries.
3.Launch different semi-customized products for various categories of application.
1，提供支持快速部署、適配某類應用場景的工藝包，用戶可以根據需求選配套件，搭建屬于自己的系統；
2，對二次開發接口提供多樣化方案，可以快速滿足不同行業的定制化需求；
3，對不同應用大類，推出不同的半定制產品。
The future looks bright for the expanding cobot market
不斷擴大的協作機器人市場前景光明
Across all the various lenses through which the worldwide collaborative robots market has been analyzed, it is clear there are signs of change and growth. We predict the market will continue to expand and adapt in response to shifting customer needs and global events.
從對全球協作機器人市場進行分析的各種角度來看，很明顯存在變化和增長的跡象。我們預測市場將繼續擴大和適應不斷變化的客戶需求和全球事件。
Strong growth is predicted in shipments through to 2027 and beyond, with price declines slowing as cobots become more intelligent and capable of carrying greater payload. While logistics applications are currently leading the market, growth is also expected in non-industrial sectors and in areas such as welding, where the full market potential has not been exploited.
預計到2027年及以后，出貨量將出現強勁增長，隨著協作機器人變得更加智能并能夠承載更大的有效載荷，價格下降將放緩。雖然物流應用目前在市場上處于領先地位，但預計非工業部門和焊接等市場潛力尚未得到充分利用的領域也將出現增長。
In order to make the most of the potential for growth, cobot manufacturers will need to listen closely to what their customers demand and develop new application scenarios, while also working alongside distributors to build their sales networks.
為了充分實現增長潛力，協作機器人制造商需要密切傾聽客戶的需求并開發新的應用場景，同時還需要與分銷商合作建立銷售網絡。
編輯精選
