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Following two consecutive years of stagnation, low–voltage VFD market poised for growth in 2014

連續兩年停滯后，低壓變頻器市場在2014年蓄勢待發

Since 2011, revenues for VFDs have maintained flat growth (0.3% CAGR from 2011 to 2013), as European countries have been cautious to invest and export demand from Asia Pacific has provided minimal incentives to invest. By contrast, unit shipments have increased slightly over the same time frame (2.6% CAGR), as lower-priced VFD sales have accelerated marginally during this same period. Although market revenues did not significantly increase in 2013, early indications for 2014 suggest that investment sentiment has improved and is expected to lead to accelerated growth in upcoming years.

2011年以來，變頻器營收一直保持增長持平（2011至2013年0.3％的復合年增長率），因為歐洲國家投資謹慎，來自亞太地區的出口需求帶來一些小的投資激勵。相比之下，在同一時期，單位出貨量略有增加（2.6％的復合年增長率），因為價格較低的變頻器銷量同期稍微加速。雖然2013年市場收入并沒有顯著增加，但一些早期指標表明，2014年的投資氣氛有所改善，預計將在未來幾年加速增長。

According to IHS analyst Kevin Schiller: “After several years of a repressed economic environment, Europe’s process markets will recover towards the end of 2014. In addition, the upcoming Energy-related Products Directive deadline in 2015 will spur additional growth in the European variable frequency drives market.” As process markets improve in Europe, growth will recover in VFD markets, which will in turn lead to a recovery in premium drives sales. With the exception of Japan, economic activity is expected to accelerate for all major countries through 2016. IHS projects that gradual increases in global economic activity will pick up, to 2.9% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015.

IHS公司的分析師Kevin Schiller表示：“經過幾年壓抑的經濟環境之后，歐洲的過程市場將在2014年底復蘇。此外，2015年即將到來的能源相關產品指引期限，將推動歐洲變頻器市場的額外增長。”隨著歐洲過程市場在改善，變頻器市場將恢復增長，這將反過來推動高端驅動器銷售的復蘇。除了日本，預計到2016年，其他主要國家的經濟行為都將加速推進。IHS預測，全球經濟活動將逐步提升，2014年和2015年將分別增長2.9％和3.5％。

One factor that indicates high potential for LV drives is the increasing of inventories by machine builder sectors. While revenues allocated to discrete sectors have grown recently, process market revenues have remained subdued. The success of discrete sectors influences the compact and standard drives market more so than the premium drives market because of their concentration within those sectors. While approximately 70% of compact and standard drive revenues are from machine-building sectors, these sectors only account for approximately half of premium drive revenues. As compact and standard drives have a lower average selling price (ASP) than premium drives, this helps to explain the recent dichotomy between unit shipment growth and revenue growth.

顯示低壓變頻器潛力較大的一個因素是機器制造商行業的庫存增加。雖然離散行業的營收近來有所增長，但過程市場的收入仍然疲弱。離散行業的成功對緊湊型和標準驅動器市場的影響比高端驅動器市場更甚，因為他們主要集中于這些行業。緊湊型和標準型驅動器收入約70％是來自機械制造行業，但這些行業只占到高端驅動大約一半的營收。因為緊湊型和標準驅動器相比高端驅動器具有更低的平均銷售價格，這有助于解釋單位出貨量增長和收入增長之間最近的二分法。

Since the 2009 global market contraction, machine builders, distributors, and system integrators have become more cautious about their level of stock of machinery. However, recent reports from suppliers have noted that sales to these customers have grown more quickly than process markets. Although end-user sectors have lagged behind in growth, investment sentiment has improved as customers become less wary of another market contraction.

由于2009年全球市場萎縮，機器制造商、分銷商和系統集成商對其機械庫存情況更為謹慎。但來自供應商最近的報告指出，面向這些客戶的銷售比過程市場增長更快。盡管終端用戶行業增長滯后，但投資氣氛有所改善，因為客戶對另一個市場萎縮的擔憂降低了。

Quarterly sales data verify expectations for increased market potential. While quarterly growth contracted in the first quarter of 2014 (as predicted), the market is stronger than it was in the first quarter of 2013 in every region included in the IHS Quarterly AC Drives Tracker. Globally, the market in the first quarter of 2014 is over 2% higher than it was in the first quarter of 2013. As a stronger recovery in EMEA is not expected until later in 2014, this early growth has reinforced anecdotal evidence that discrete markets are preparing for expected increased demand.

季度銷售數據驗證了更大市場潛力的預計。盡管2014年第一季度（為預測值）的季度增長有所收縮，但市場仍然強于“IHS季度交流變頻器跟蹤報告”所包括地區的2013年第一季度。從全球來看，2014年第一季度市場增長比2013年第一季高2％以上。歐洲、中東及非洲市場的強勁復蘇預計要到2014年后半年，這個前期增長也進一步表明了傳聞證據，那就是離散市場對預期的增長需求，正在做準備。